Surgical Strike by Indian Special Forces in POK

1.     Since 1205 hrs on 29 Sep 16 the issue which has been "dissected" by all and sundry specially in Indian Media is the declaration by Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, DGMO of Indian Army that Indian Special Forces conducted surgical strikes inside POK and neutralized terrorists and "those who supported them".  Social media is abuzz like beehive with all kinds of messages being forwarded to all and sundry. Now let me enumerate what happened thereafter:-

(a)  Pakistan gave out conflicting statements ranging from flat denial of any such operations, to accepting death of two of its army personnel in cross border" firing (Do they mean LOC is now IB?) to total silence from their Defence Minister who was talking of dropping nuclear bombs on India in case of any military action by India as also Gen Sharief their COAS who retires in a few weeks. Her efforts to raise the matter in UNO have elicited absolutely no response.

(b) South Asian Countries gave either thumbs up to India or indirectly laid the blame in Pakistan's lap for encouraging and spreading terrorism in the region. In addition 5 out of 8 SAARC nations withdrew from meet planned in Nov in Pakistan as a visible rebuke.

(c) USA within a couple of hrs gave a reprimand to Pakistan and did not criticize Indian action giving a legitimacy to it and so did Russia. In fact USA has declared Pakistan's comments on nuclear strike as irresponsible (strong rebuke in International Relations parlance) and warned against a possible coup by Jehadi groups. Russia called off its military exercise plans in POK and cancelled sale of 37 attack helicopters to Pakistan.

(d) All Europian countries followed suit in similar manner and have asked Pakistan to control the menace of terrorism.

(e) OPEC muslim countries, most notably Saudi Arabia sided with Indian stand.

(f)  Afganistan openly supported Indian action.

(g) Most importantly China displayed a neutral status and merely asked both the countries to show restraint. Now since India had declared in the press conference about her intention of NOT continuing the operations, the onus of not escalating was clearly being laid on Pakistan even by China (traditional Pakistan backer)

(h) Indian Political parties supported and congratulated either Army or Govt or both as per their political compulsions. People like Sitaram Yechury gave statements to the contrary to continue talks with Pakistan. BJP was obviously thumping chest but in a restrained manner due to diktat given by party leadership against it. Most of intelligentsia and Social commentators are silent and sarcastic comments on 56 inch chest and dalit / minority issues as well as frequent foreign visits by PM Modi are conspicuous by their absence.

(j) Indian public in general was ecstatic and full of praise about competence of army and decision making / will of the Govt and its leadership. Quite a few skeptics however doubted the genuineness of the news / act and given the exposure of battlefield that most of them have from the comforts of their homes and AC studios carried out post-mortem of the complete operation from strategical, tactical, logistical and economical aspects. Some even linked this news to UP election and declared it as a political electoral stunt using army's shoulder. Slug-fest is also on regarding Pakistani actors in Bollywood.

(k) Media went into overdrive and visual media has gone to the lunatic levels of showing special programs about Indian Special Forces of Army, Navy, Airforce and Ghataks of Infantry Battalions and interviews of families of URI martyrs besides making panels of armchair military strategists who have been having verbal diarrhea explaining planning, conduct and need of such operations.

2.  Ok. So that is about the factual position most of which all of us are aware of. Now why is this news so eclectic, important and being discussed so much?  What's so great about a tactical level operation by army which is not the first of its kind. Why was this one declared with fanfare when previous ones were not? Will this one operation make Pakistan behave? Will more such attacks not happen? Will there be a war between India and Pakistan? Will Pakistan drop a nuclear bomb? Will China attack us now? Well, let me give the bigger picture to bring in the correct perspective.

3.  In international relations there are no permanent friends or foes. Every nation has to survive on it's own. National pride, security and interests are supreme. Today, India occupies a great geo-strategic position in the comity of nations. India is one of the biggest markets, source of material and soft skills and due to it's geographical position in Indian Ocean and economic, military and intellectual might carries weight. Current Govt has made large strides in diplomatic arena spearheaded by personal rapport created by PM Modi with almost all heads of States and strategic alliances made during much criticized visits by him to all these nations. It is the result of such diplomatic relations that India could maneuver so deftly after URI incident and managed to totally isolate Pakistan. The range of tools used by present govt are:

(a)  Diplomatic pressure through UN and alliances with most of the nations. The creation of current favorable environment was initiated at the time of swearing in ceremony of current Govt and built up in last two years through visits to different nations by PM / Minsters / MEA staff including the "unplanned" stop over at Lahore kind of peace initiatives by India towards Pakistan. Remember grants given to countries like Bhutan and Vietnam recently?

(b)  Leveraging "threat" of reconsidering Indus river treaty.

(c)  Declared reconsideration of MFN status and permission to use India airspace by Pak aircrafts.

(d)  Sabotaging SAARC meet to be held in Pakistan in Nov.

(e)  Bagging major economic contracts and build up of financial health at the cost of Pakistan.

(f)  Military actions like the current surgical strike.

(g) Raising the issue of Baloochistan at international level. 

4.   Using these tools in a carefully orchestrated manner India has completely isolated Pakistan. The military action is one of the "tactical" tools used in the "strategy" of achieving the end state where Pakistan abrogates export of terrorism in the region. It won't happen over night.......definitely not because of one such strike. This surgical strike has following characteristics:-

(a)  Plan to carry out the strike probably took shape immediately after the Uri incident when COAS and NSA visited J&K within two days. It couldn't have been to take stock of situation from ground zero. It surely was to plan with Army and Corps Commander and assess our preparedness. While Govt thereafter created conducive environment internationally and domestically, army carried out recce, training and preparation. At the chosen moment, it was executed. Purely from a military point of view, such operations are possible and conducted previously too in 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2015. Prior to 1993, Border Action Teams (BAT) operations of similar nature were common from both sides. Simultaneous action on 7-8 targets with large casualties on enemy and none on own side is a very "Do-able" thing for our army. Last year action in Myanmar is a recent example. People and media looking for graphic details must resist from public discussions / spreading incorrect inputs on social media about its conduct part as it's none of their business and can seriously jeopardize future operations and lives of people.

(b) Appropriate level communication took place with US Secretary / President, neighboring nations, Domestic Power Centers and even DGMO of Pak army. This ensured a clear mandate in our favor both internationally and domestically.

(c) Targets chosen were within tactical depth of 2-3 KMs in POK which is effectively Indian territory occupied by Pakistan (at best a disputed territory) and consisted of terrorists camps /staging areas. So dilemma with Pakistan is that she cannot accept the strikes as it would be embarrassing and shameful for the "mighty army" of theirs to accept the fact and also tantamount to acknowledging terrorist camps in her land aided and abetted by its army (two army person also died in these strikes) while denial takes away her reason to escalate the matter and obviate the use of military measures including use of a nuclear bomb.  

(d)  Declaring this operation was needed unlike previous occasions to achieve the above state of affairs which was not the case previously. This advertising of a small tactical operation is a strategic step in the grand strategy as described above towards the end state sought. The strikes have also achieved a big result of calling the nuclear bluff of Pakistan which she had been using very often as a blackmailing tool to continue her nefarious activities and force international community to ask India for strategic restraint. Now having called this bogey, all nations have shifted the onus of strategic restraint from India on to Pakistan for the first time.  Political advantage in forthcoming elections is a bonus which would definitely have been a consideration factor though not the primary one.

5.  So, what now? Well, Pakistan will flounder for some more time before it can start to think coherently. In words of Manohar Parikkar she is still under the influence of anesthesia after the surgical strikes. 

(a)  It's unlikely that she will escalate the matter militarily though she will keep pleading with nations considered close to her and USA to intervene. Some posturing will take place like move of five battalions have been moved towards border opposite Jammu area. 

(b)  Most probably her strategic assets - terrorists will be galvanized to strike against Indian targets in hinterland specially army installations. Sleeper cells will be activated and they will try to raise the level of asymmetric war in J&K including through some anti-national Indian persons / groups of persons who for vested reasons act against their own country. 

(c)  General public, feeling proud and less burdened / helpless/ useless in contrast to previous Uri like incidents when nothing tangible was done, will soon get occupied in routine life. 

(d)  BJP may reap the benfits in upcoming elections. 

(e)  AND army personnel will continue to similarly serve the country silently without restoration of their status / pay under 7th pay commission / NFU / OROP and families of martyrs will keep running from pillar to post for their peanut worth pension and posthumous awards.

Jai Hind!